Showing posts with label RacePrediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RacePrediction. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Race Plan Frankfurt

A few days before the race, it is time to put my race plan into writing. Even though I have a pretty clear plan in my head, writing it down always helps.

current[1]Photo taken from the finish line webcam at http://www.ironman.de/live/webcam.htm

General

I know that I do not have the fitness I would like to have. Therefore, any dreams of dramatic improvements can be put to rest (unless I want a spectacular detonation during the run). I will have to execute really well if I want to have a decent run. However, if I manage to do that, I believe that I can end up close to my current PR of 11h58.

There are a number of things that lead to me to be a bit skeptic. I haven’t done enough long sessions, and my weight is about 6 pounds over were I want to be. Also, it’s probably going to be quite hot for the race which will make the race even harder for me.

Swim

I haven’t done much swimming, so I have no idea what my swim time is going to end up. As long as I focus on technique and swimming relaxed, I should end up okay even if my longest swim session was just about 2.5k. The wetsuit swim in Hannover felt pretty good, and I hope it’s not going to be too hot to swim in a wetsuit. [Update: It’s currently very hot and the water temperature is just short of not allowing wetsuits. By race day, we’ll probably be over it – so it looks like a non-wetsuit swim.] I’m guessing that I’ll swim around 1h15, and I’m fine as long as I swim under 1h20. But whatever, a few extra minutes on the swim won’t hurt me much.

I’ll take transition pretty easy, too – just put on my helmet and then grab the bike with shoes and all the rest of my stuff (glasses, gloves and arm warmers if it is cold in the morning). I should be on the bike somewhere between 1h20 and 1h30.

Bike

The key for the bike will be to set up a good run – this requires an “easy” bike. It will be quite hard to keep this thought in mind for the 6h30 or so that the bike will take, especially with my flashy new bike and race wheels.

This year, the bike course will be a bit longer than usual – some construction will add an extra 5k to the bike, about 10 minutes at my speed. At my current fitness, I think that I can manage an average speed between 28.5 and 29 km/h.- this would give a bike split of 6h30 to 6h22. When I told my friends about this goal time, they thought I was low-balling, but I think anything faster would be bad for my run split. The numbers to arrive at this time are HR under 120, and wattage about 125w. (I know that number is probably low, but my Ergomo is off – which doesn’t really matter, I want to ride as even as possible, and absolute numbers are not important for that.)

I hope to be off the bike at under 8 hours – probably around the time that the first pros will have finished. As they start 15 minutes before the age groupers, it might be a goal of finishing the bike before the first pro finishes the race, but that would require a 7h45 and that’s probably a bit fast for me.

As important as not spending too much energy on the bike is making sure I eat and drink enough. For eating, I’m aiming for 250 to 300 cal on the bike, which is about one bar per hour, the occasional banana and then some calories from the Powerbar electrolyte drink they’re handing out on the course.

As it’s going to be really hot, it will be important to drink enough and cool myself down with water over the head. I hope I’ll be able to manage things better than at Hannover when I was overheated when I came off the bike and had a pretty bad run.

Run

Once I get off the bike, change and start the run, it’ll be interesting to see if I manage to keep my HR down. It’ll be in the middle of the day (around 3pm or so), so it’s going to be pretty hot and it will be important to start the run as easy as possible (HR under 130, if possible around 125). This will require some walk breaks, especially on the short steep sections onto the bridges and at the aid stations to make sure that I get some more drinks, water and ice. I’ll also have to try to eat as long as possible in order to be able to have a solid run. I’m going to prepare my FuelBelt and have PowerBlocks and Gu Shot Blocks available. In the past, I got to a point where I didn’t care too much any more, stopped eating and ran out of steam soon after that. So it’ll be mentally hard to keep in the race and make the best of my chances. I don’t think that I’ll be able to run any faster than a 6 minute per k pace, and I hope to be able to keep that up as long as possible. This would result in 4h15 marathon, and a total race time of just a bit over 12 hours.

I’ll count anything under 12:08 as a PR (my current PR is a 11:58 from Roth 2007), and I’ll be very proud if I manage to run in that general area.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Packed for my first tri this season

Just a quick post after packing my stuff for tomorrow and being almost ready for bed …

Tomorrow, I’ll race my first tri this season. (In fact it is my first triathlon after the Ostseeman in 2008.) It is a half Ironman distance race in Hannover (http://www.wasserstadt-triathlon.de/index.html). I’ve done this race a few times before, but they’ve changed things around a bit (different layout for the swim, new shorter bike loop, new longer run loop), so I don’t really know what to expect. Also, with my past training I know I won’t be able to rip the course like I did in 2007 when I went really fast and almost everything clicked. (If I remember correctly, I was a bit disappointed because I did not manage to run under 1h40. Not a chance tomorrow!)

I’ve tried to come up with some time plan for my wife, but I know it’s pretty much a shot in the dark. My main goal is to be able to have a decent run the last 10k. (I’ve struggled with my run the last time I did the race in 2008 and had to walk the second half of the run leg.) As it’s going to be a hot day tomorrow (the first summer days have just arrived) with temperatures in the 80s and the start of the race around noon, I know I have to be really careful on the bike. This has led to the following plan, mixing IM and faster speeds:

  • 2k Swim: 40 Minutes (no idea where I’ll end up ;-)
  • 90k Bike: 3 laps of 30k each (2h53, goal: sub 2h55, if everything goes great sub 2h50)
    • Lap 1: ~ IM (140W, <120HR, 29km/h): 1h02
    • Lap 2: a little faster (150W, <130HR, 31 km/h) 58 Minutes
    • Lap 3: ~ 1/2 IM (160W, < 140HR, 34 km/h) 53 Minutes
  • 21.1 Run: 2 laps of 10,6k each (1h53, goal: sub 1h55, if everything goes great sub 1h50)
    • Lap 1 to 5k: ~IM (<130HR, a little faster than 6 min/k) 30 minutes
    • Lap 1 rest: a little faster (<135HR, 5:30 min/k) 31 minutes
      (goal: first loop in under 1:00h)
    • Lap2 if feeling okay: ~ 1/2 IM (HR whatever ~ 5 min/k) 53 minutes

Adding the transitions in (5 minutes for T1 and T2?) gives a total of about 5h35, so I’ll try to get under 5h30. Even if I have a great race I don’t see me going any faster than a 5h20.

But whatever happens tomorrow, I have to keep my goal of a decent second half of the run in my mind. If I manage to pick up the pace then, this race will have been a success. Slowly starting to get nervous, hope I’ll be able to sleep …

Friday, February 26, 2010

Kiel Half Marathon: Are you Ready?

Tomorrow (Saturday), I’m going to race the Half Marathon Kiel.

The best photo I could find is a summer picture (even though my last posts were complaints about the bad winter weather):

Photo by Drbashir117 from Wikipedia Commons

The race is run on the western side of the “Kieler Förde” (on the left side of the picture). Usually, it is a 10.5k loop, but because of the winter weather, it had to be shortened to 7k, so instead of two loops we’ll run three.

With all the winter weather, I have no idea what will be possible for me and I’m not really ready for racing. Back in November I was hoping I’d be a able to run close to my PR (1.31h), but that is out of the question. My last race (19,6k Lümmellauf in January) is six weeks ago, and I was able to run a bit slower than 5min/k average. Even though I didn’t manage to do any longer runs, I hope to be able to be a bit quicker. That would be under 1h45. This would require at least half-way decent weather, no icy roads and not any new snow. (The weather report predicts 4°C – about 40°F – and rainy weather, so that should be okay.)

I hope to be able to run a bit faster, but as in my last race I had problems towards the end, I know I have to be conservative. I think I’ll start the first loop with a rough target HR of about 150 (Lümmellauf average was 155) and see what pace that corresponds to. If that feels okay, maybe I can pick up the pace and HR a bit in the next two loops. It would be great if that works out to 7k loops of 35, 34, and 33 minutes and a total time of 1:42. If I even manage to go under 1:40, I’d be real happy. As I said, I have no idea of where I am. At least I’ll be able to run in my lighter shoes for the first time this year. With all the snow, I didn’t do any faster stuff since mid-November …

Friday, January 15, 2010

Getting Ready for Lümmellauf

On Sunday, I’ll have my first race of this year, “Lümmellauf” (literally “Oaf Run”), a cross country run of 19.3 km.

Wiener Wuerstchen by cran304.

Photo by cran304

First, about the picture .. yes, it’s a sausage and it’s related to the race: Somebody makes a special batch of sausages (for the US people: hot dogs) also called “Lümmel” which is given out to all participants after the race. A pretty good test for your stomach, but it feels pretty good to get something warm ..

This is usually the first race of the year. The course itself is really pretty, mostly off-road (except for the immediate start/finish area) but wide enough to be able to run with a large group – but usually after the first few ks everyone runs on his/her own … They offer a lot of different distances – 1k and 2k for the younger ones, then a 5k (5300m – one short loop), a 10k (9700m – a longer loop) and 20k (19300m – two longer loops).

In the past, this has been a pretty good gauge of where I was after the Christmas-“diet” and some initial build-up. When running the 9.7k you got a time you could shoot for in an 10k later in the season, and the average pace in the 19.3k was something you could hold for a 1/2 marathon a bit later on. Last year I managed to run a 1:23:42, a 4:20 per k average speed. This would correspond to a 1:31:25 half marathon – pretty close to my PR.

This year, things are a bit different. First, I’ve been injured and didn’t train much in November and December. Second, it’s been really cold and we have a ton of snow on the ground. So I absolutely don’t have any idea of what is possible, especially not having had a look at the conditions on the course.

So I’m being really conservative and assume a 5:15/k pace – which would be a 1h41. Anything faster would be nice, I’m hoping for a pace under 5min/k which would be under 1:36:30. But this is just guessing.

What I’m really looking forward is to meet a couple of running and triathlon buddies. Hopefully I’ll not be too spent to link up with a few people …

Friday, September 25, 2009

Thoughts on my training before this weekends half-marathon race in Alstertal

This Sunday, I’ll be running my next race: The half-marathon in Alsteral. It’s a pretty nice race, most of it on a packed-dirt path along the river Alster. “Along a river” sounds like a flat race, but there is not too much space along the river, so there are a lot of ups and downs on the banks of the river. Definitely not a PR course. I’ll post some GPS data from my Garmin 405 after the race.

(Photo by mike warren)

The best time I have run there is a 1:38:30, and I would like to be able to run in that neighborhood. They had to change the course a bit this year, and it sounds like this means another few hills, so I’m not sure how comparable the times will be. Sub-1:40 should be possible, but the race is a B or C priority, so I’m not too focused on a specific time – I just want to run a nice, focused race at a faster pace than in my regular training.

Mixed Intervals

Speaking of my training, I’m really enjoying the new possibilities with the 405. This Tuesday, I was doing some mixed interval session. I was trying to do the following faster parts:

  • 2k @ marathon pace (~5:00 min/k)
  • 2k @ half-marathon pace (~4:30)
  • 1 mile @ 10k pace (~4:10)
  • 1k @ 5k pace (sub 4:00)
  • 800 @ “really fast pace” (no idea .. maybe ~3:30?)

In between these segments there were 3 minutes “active recovery”, so some walking and easy jogging. (Advanced versions of this have shorter recoveries, but I’m certainly not ready for that.)

Maybe I don’t have a good understanding of my paces at this point, but as soon as I got to 10k pace, it was getting really hard. Anything faster than 10k pace was almost impossible, and I had to bail after 500m at 4 min pace. No top-end at all!!

So shorter, faster intervals will definitely be something I have to work on. As I have another 10k race in two weeks, I would like to do some interval sessions at 5k and faster paces. I hope that I don’t have to go to a track but that my 405 allows me to do sessions such as these on the road:

  • 5 * 400m @ 3k pace
  • 4 * 1k @5k pace

The total distance for these runs would be around 10k total.

I’ll do some running at 10k pace, but that will be more like a Tempo Run rather than fast, short intervals. A sample session would be 2-3 * 1 Mile at 10k pace within a longish run (maybe 13k).

Focusing on “Short&Fast”

All of this goes to show that my training focus has changed a bit (and I’m still struggling with it). While in the first part of the year I was doing longer and longer runs at a leisurely pace, now I’m trying to shake things up a bit by focusing on short and fast stuff.

Hopefully this will allow me to loose some weight as well. I’m still in line for my end-of-September goal of sub-89 kg …

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Planning Rennsteig

A few weeks ago, I posted a general idea for my Rennsteig race. I arrived at roughly a 6 min/k pace (plus some extra time for the hills), with a goal of under 8 hours for the complete distance). But for my wife and parents (who will come to support me before, during and after the race), I had to come up with a more detailed plan so they know when to show up where.

  • My rough goal time is 8 hours (= 480 minutes)
  • Rennsteig has about 1500m of ascent, at 3 extra minutes per 100m “up”, that’ll take about 45 minutes (which leaves 435 minutes)
  • In order to run the 72.7k in that time, you have to be just a bit quicker than a 6 Min/k pace. If I base my calculations on a 5:55 Min/k pace, that’ll leave me some cushion to come in under 8 hours.

Based on this pacing, here’s the breakdown by sections:

Section Distance Height gain Time/ section Total time
Eisenach to Grenzwiese 26,8 800 3:02 3:02
to Neue Ausspanne 14,0 100 1:26 4:28
to Grenzadler 13,9 200 1:28 5:56
to Schmiedefeld 18,0 400 1:59 7:55

My wife and my parents will try to be at these stations, and I hope to be able to see them.

Now I’ve got to and pack my things, my parents and I will drive down tomorrow.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Goals for Hamburg

I'm running Hamburg Marathon this Sunday as my last prep race for Rennsteig. Here are my goals for this race:
  • last test-run for equipment, clothes etc.
  • practice restraint (I'll be running a bit quicker than at Rennsteig, but running 5.30 k's will still require some restraint with all the people around me.)
  • run while eating and drinking (eat as planned for Rennsteig, even when running a bit faster - a Cliff bar and a bag of ClifShots during the race), take time at aid stations
  • enjoying myself and the race - shoot a couple of pics!
  • try to run sub 4h (pace at 5.30 min/k - 27.30 to 28 Min for 5k)

Here's the equipment I plan to use:
  • clothing - short tights, running T-shirt, plus long sleeve shirt for first section (later stuff into Camelbak), usual socks
  • shoes (my standard long run Brooks Adrenaline)
  • Camelbak (with 2 liters of fluid and food as mentioned above, plus toilet paper)
  • my usual Polar HRM and strap (no GPS available ;-))
  • cellphone (for info and camera)
  • iPod (in case I need some more entertainment)
I'm not going to use a hat or sunglasses (unless wheather changes dramatically).

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Guessing my time for Rennsteig

Friends and family are asking me for predictions for my Rennsteig time. My usual answer is along the lines of "I don't know, it's the first time I'm doing such a long race" which is true ... Until I've done one of these longer races, I have no idea how my body is going to react. I've got some background with my Ironmen, but even in those I've not yet put a decent run together.

.. but of course I've got some time in mind. :-) Mainly, it is an indication for my wife when to expect me at the finish in Schmiedefeld, but it is also a guideline for my pacing for the first few k's when running slow is incredibly hard.

So here are my thoughts ..my marathon PR is 3:29:39, which is pretty much a 5 min/k pace.
  • Doubling my marathon time gives 7:00 hours .. Rennsteig is only 1,75 times a marathon, but the terrain is much harder.
  • Doubling the distance usually adds 10% to the pace,which gives a 5:30/k pace. For 73k, that would be a 6:45 (but that does not factor the terrain in at all - so it's quite unrealistic).
  • To compensate for the trails and hills ... somewhere else (a German website) I've read that 100m of uphill (running) adds 5min . Rennsteig has 1500m of total uphill, that would be 75min (1:15h). Adding that to the above calculation gives 8:00h.
  • Some plans I've seen (another German site by Andreas Butz) state that it is possible (when well trained) to run Rennsteig at +45sec of Marathon pace, but for first timers (and people like me doing the race a bit more relaxed) +60 to +90 seconds per k is more realistic .. 5:45/k -> 7:00h, 6:00/k -> 7:20h, 6:30/k -> 7:55h
  • My easy training pace is somewhere between 5:45 and 6:00 min/k. Even when slowing down towards the end and with all the hills, 6:30 should be possible. Even during my worst IM marathon time, I was averaging 7:00/k (which would be a 8:30h).
All in all, I think I can go under 8:00 and will use 6:00 to 6:15/k as my pacing guideline for the first 25k or so. When I get there, maybe I'll adjust my plans, but at that point in the race I'll probably be going based on feel anyways.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Thoughts about tomorrow's race

Had a pretty busy day and don't have much time to write. So just some thoughts for tomorrow ...

The race is the Hochbrückenlauf in Kiel. It's one of the nicer runs in the spring. They have a short (16k) and a long version (29,8k). It's a great race to test one's fitness for an upcoming spring race. Usually the race is just around the time spring starts. We've had occasions with some snow left, but usually it is one of the first nice spring days - sunny, but still quite cold.

The first part of the race is relatively "boring", quite flat (except for one bridge) through nice country side. Between 15k and 21k the course is totally flat along the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal (Kiel Canal). The rest of the course is a blast: The 23k mark is under this bridge:
The 24k mark is right on top! It's pretty steep - hard to guess, but I'd say more than 5% average. It's probably the hardest "hill" of any running event in Northern Germany. The rest of the course is quite undulating through a nice green forest. A killer run! If you want to test your form for a spring marathon, I suggest to run marathon pace till you hit the bridge, then see if you can hold the pace (good form) or get a bit faster (even better!). As typical with endurance events, with proper pacing you'll overtake a lot of people towards the end.

I've run this race around five times. My best time was last year's 2:20:xx while preparing for my marathon PR. As I'm training this year for an ultra marathon (Rennsteiglauf, 73k) I've done quite some training, but more focused on distance than speed. Also, I've done a long run on Friday, so I don't think I'll be able to get close this year. I'll be happy to run under 5 minute pace, so another under 2:29 will be okay. I hope to be able to run under 2:25, but I don't know what speed my legs will have. I think I'll have a pretty good idea after 5k, but I just don't know what will be possible. At least I'm confident that I won't have a problem to finish ...

Wish me luck .. no, luck's got nothing to do with it.