Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Guessing my time for Rennsteig

Friends and family are asking me for predictions for my Rennsteig time. My usual answer is along the lines of "I don't know, it's the first time I'm doing such a long race" which is true ... Until I've done one of these longer races, I have no idea how my body is going to react. I've got some background with my Ironmen, but even in those I've not yet put a decent run together.

.. but of course I've got some time in mind. :-) Mainly, it is an indication for my wife when to expect me at the finish in Schmiedefeld, but it is also a guideline for my pacing for the first few k's when running slow is incredibly hard.

So here are my thoughts ..my marathon PR is 3:29:39, which is pretty much a 5 min/k pace.
  • Doubling my marathon time gives 7:00 hours .. Rennsteig is only 1,75 times a marathon, but the terrain is much harder.
  • Doubling the distance usually adds 10% to the pace,which gives a 5:30/k pace. For 73k, that would be a 6:45 (but that does not factor the terrain in at all - so it's quite unrealistic).
  • To compensate for the trails and hills ... somewhere else (a German website) I've read that 100m of uphill (running) adds 5min . Rennsteig has 1500m of total uphill, that would be 75min (1:15h). Adding that to the above calculation gives 8:00h.
  • Some plans I've seen (another German site by Andreas Butz) state that it is possible (when well trained) to run Rennsteig at +45sec of Marathon pace, but for first timers (and people like me doing the race a bit more relaxed) +60 to +90 seconds per k is more realistic .. 5:45/k -> 7:00h, 6:00/k -> 7:20h, 6:30/k -> 7:55h
  • My easy training pace is somewhere between 5:45 and 6:00 min/k. Even when slowing down towards the end and with all the hills, 6:30 should be possible. Even during my worst IM marathon time, I was averaging 7:00/k (which would be a 8:30h).
All in all, I think I can go under 8:00 and will use 6:00 to 6:15/k as my pacing guideline for the first 25k or so. When I get there, maybe I'll adjust my plans, but at that point in the race I'll probably be going based on feel anyways.
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  1. RaivoApril 17, 2009 at 1:39 PM

    Interesting topic. I have the same problem.
    I have run six marathons and now I could predict almost exactly (+- 3 minutes) before the race, what could be my finishing time.
    Theory, that doubling the distance adds 10% to the pace is quite correct to me in “short distances”
    Last autumn I ran half-marathon PB 1:31 and month later marathon PB 3:21.

    But right now is very hard to predict Rennsteig time. I hope that your prediction will get true in the race.

    I had one more thought:
    I checked last five years Rennsteig finish times and find out, that if I want to be in the first half, then I have to run marathon 8:10-8:20 and in the first quarter then time have to be around 7:30-7:40.

    If we compare the same positions in marathon race then the times have to be around 3:50 and 3:30.
    It confirm, that we both could cover the distance 7:30-8:00 :)

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